tl;dr: Imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is a terrible idea.
Over the last few days I’ve seen an overwhelming number of articles, from all sides of the spectrum, suggesting that many people support the idea of a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
This is bad.
I understand it, we all want this conflict to end. The idea of stopping Russia from bombing Ukraine from the sky is easy to get behind. But I don’t think everyone realizes what a no-fly zone implies.
Alliances and treaties are powerful things.
In 1914, the Austro-Hungarian Empire goes to war with Serbia over the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. Russia, an ally and somewhat “big brother” character to Serbia, comes to their defence. Germany has an alliance with Austria-Hungary. This means war with Russia. However, due to a Russia-France alliance, declaring war on Russia means war with France. Germany invades France via Belgium and Luxembourg in hopes of securing their west before fighting Russia on their east.
World War 1 begins.
25 years later, Germany wants to reclaim territory lost during the first war. Their leader feels the land belongs to the greater German empire (sound familiar?). Germany invades Poland, and due to treaties, England and France declare war on Germany.
World War 2 begins.
A no-fly zone over Ukraine feels like a good idea in concept. If Russian jets can’t enter Ukrainian airspace, it limits their ability to bomb the country. At face value, this seems like a logical response.
But a no-fly zone isn’t some handshake agreement. Russia doesn’t suddenly stop bombing Ukraine because this hypothetical zone exists. It requires enforcing. Any aircraft entering Ukrainian airspace will be shot down.
The problem, once again, is treaties.
Every country surrounding Ukraine — with the exception of Belarus, an ally of Russia, and Moldova, closely tied to Romania — is a member of NATO. Enforcing a no-fly zone would essentially require a NATO country to attack Russia. This in itself isn’t a bad thing. But if and when Russia shoots back, we’re in trouble.
Article 5 states that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries.
The Cold War ends for a second time.
World War 3 begins.
I want this conflict to end. But not like this.
